Fewer sea and tree changes in the crowded future

BY Alex Brooks

BABY boomers - those born between 1946 and 1964 - are a demographic behemoth that will redefine the expectations of older home buyers, and reshape the nature of the residential property market, KPMG demographer Bernard Salt has said.
Bureau of Statistics figures show the number of Australians aged more than 60 will rise from 15 per cent of the population to 25 per cent during the next 40 years.
And as the largest demographic gets older, experts predict new housing trends will emerge, including:
More lifestyle developments appealing to older owner-occupiers which could also offer in-home care services;
More houses and apartments with slick, minimalist lines;
Older single women will move in together for companionship and security;
An increased number of free-standing properties accommodating several generations;
Fewer sea change and tree change retirement options and more "down the road" changes into smaller properties close to family and friends;
A preference for single-storey homes with low-maintenance grounds but enough space for the family to visit.
Everyone's priorities are different and no two baby boomers will behave in exactly the same way.
To some, life on a golf course or beach is an attractive option. But for many, moving far away from family and friends is not so appealing. They want a home that lets them live the lifestyle they want, while staying in the areas they know.
Bonza baby boomer website editor Brian Murphy said many boomers do not own their own homes outright - and the AMP NATSEM financial survey backs that, showing more people aged 60-plus have mortgages compared with previous generations.
"A lot of us do not own our own homes, so living with other boomers may be a reality for them in the future," Mr Murphy said.
"Combining resources - particularly when our women reach their 70s and are divorced or husbands have died young.
"There will be hundreds of thousands of us and we will have security worries if we live alone."
Mr Salt agreed, pointing out that the demographic most likely to form single-person households are women aged over 70: "It could be like after the Great War, when many widows lived in platonic relationships as spinsters."
Foreseechange's Charlie Nelson also said he believes that over the next 20 years there will be a rise in female companion relationships as friends set up house together to beat the security risk of living alone.
Mr Nelson said his surveys show housing affordability is a massive concern to young and old, and he predicted older generations will move to self-contained flats or back rooms in their homes to allow younger family members to live in the family home with them.
"That solves both problems - housing affordability and ageing."
Economic forecasters BIS Shrapnel predicted that empty-nesters and retirees will make up the bulk of the residential housing market over the next five years; affordability constraining activity from first-home buyers and upgraders. "Between 2008 and 2013, the growth in households is predicted to be 37,000 per annum in NSW - 50 per cent of that increase in dwellings will come from 60- to 64-year-olds and one-third will be from those aged 50 to 54," said BIS Shrapnel's Robert Mellor, who said those age groups are more likely to want to live in apartments or townhouses close to their current homes.
"Retirees in the 1980s were more willing to go to the Gold Coast or North Coast or South Coast, but now there is more understanding that you want your network around you."
Plenty of baby boomers will be happy to stay put in the house they have raised their children in.
"Many won't want to downsize because the kids' bedroom will become the home office and they will expand to fit the space around them," Mr Mellor said.
Mr Salt predicted that in middle-class suburbs such as the Upper North Shore more medium-density developments will be built catering to baby boomers wanting a property low on maintenance and high on lifestyle.
"There will probably be more developments where there aren't just tennis courts, gyms or swimming pools paid for out of strata levies, but in-home care like nursing might become part of the package."

Shared living may be way of future
CASE STUDY
SHEILA CARROLL is about to buy a property that can accommodate two small houses - one for her, and one for her daughter Claudia.
"It will be a house for each of us," said the 71-year-old, who is now renting with Claudia.
"It's not always easy having two women live together, though. You have to be very respectful of each other's needs. My daughter is my best friend and I adore her, but women living together have plenty of problems."
Ms Carroll said women who have raised families and lived on their own would find it too difficult to live with other women as they get older - which is what some property experts are predicting could happen as a solution to the many single-female households aged over 70.
But the idea of setting up house with another woman is perfectly sensible, said Janice Sands and Christina Brooks.
The friends aged in their early 60s now live on their own, but said it's a perfect solution for women who become frailer as they age. "You could do what you want in your own space most of the time but come together on the deck each night for some company," Ms Sands said.